Why the NBA Should Still Be Afraid of the Warriors

The Underestimated Power of Golden State

Ten years after launching their dynasty with the first of four championships, the Golden State Warriors appear to have fallen behind other Western Conference teams. ESPN BET currently lists them with only the seventh-best odds to win the West this season, trailing powerhouses like the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and LA Clippers. This ranking seems justifiable given their recent performance: last season, Golden State finished as the seventh seed and exited the second round in five games. Moreover, they could field the oldest starting lineup in NBA history this season. Should Buddy Hield join Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green, and Al Horford post-December 17th, the Warriors would be the first team ever to start five players aged 33 or older, according to ESPN Research. However, this pessimistic outlook significantly overlooks Golden State`s true capabilities. Far from being an aging relic, the Warriors are poised to be one of the Western Conference`s most formidable contenders, potentially even challenging the dominant Thunder. The team that last repeated as NBA champions might just emerge as the dark horse to prevent another from doing so.

«Golden State»ning Qadri Past Baholangan Kuchi

Dinastiyaning to`rtta chempionligidan birinchisini qo`lga kiritganiga o`n yil bo`lganidan so`ng, «Golden State Warriors» G`arbiy konferensiyaning boshqa jamoalaridan ortda qolgandek tuyulmoqda. ESPN BET ma`lumotlariga ko`ra, «Warriors» bu mavsumda G`arbda g`alaba qozonish uchun atigi yettinchi eng yaxshi imkoniyatga ega, ular amaldagi chempion «Oklahoma City Thunder», «Denver Nuggets», «Houston Rockets», «Los Angeles Lakers», «Minnesota Timberwolves» va «LA Clippers» kabi kuchli jamoalardan keyinda turadi. Bu reyting so`nggi natijalarini hisobga olsak, o`rinli ko`rinadi: o`tgan mavsumda «Golden State» yettinchi o`rinni egallab, ikkinchi bosqichdan besh o`yinda chiqib ketdi. Bundan tashqari, ular shu mavsumda NBA tarixidagi eng keksa asosiy tarkibni maydonga tushirishi mumkin. Agar Buddy Hield 17-dekabrdan keyin Stiven Curry, Jimmi Butler III, Draymond Green va Al Horford bilan birga asosiy tarkibda maydonga tushsa, ESPN Research ma`lumotlariga ko`ra, «Warriors» bir o`yinda beshta 33 yosh yoki undan kattaroq futbolchini boshlaydigan birinchi jamoa bo`ladi. Biroq, bu pessimistik prognoz «Golden State»ning haqiqiy salohiyatini jiddiy ravishda past baholaydi. Aksincha, «Warriors» G`arbiy konferensiyaning eng xavfli jamoalaridan biri bo`lib, hatto yoshi o`tib borgan bo`lsa ham, ular qudratli «Thunder» bilan raqobatlasha olishi mumkin. NBAning oxirgi ketma-ket chempioni, ehtimol, yangi nomzodning ketma-ket chempion bo`lishiga to`sqinlik qiladigan kutilmagan ot bo`lishi mumkin.

Curry and Butler: A Full Season`s Impact

ESPN`s Kevin Pelton projects the Warriors to secure 56 wins, ranking them second across the entire NBA. This projection positions them firmly among the West`s elite, far above the play-in tournament teams. Why such a stark contrast between this optimistic forecast and the widespread belief that the Warriors` championship window has shut? The answer is straightforward: during Jimmy Butler`s half-season tenure, the Warriors were undeniably one of the league`s top squads, a performance they further enhanced in the offseason. Logically, this makes them a legitimate contender for the upcoming season. Last year, Golden State impressively defeated the second-seeded Rockets in the first round and won the initial game against the Timberwolves before faltering without Stephen Curry, who sustained a hamstring injury early in the series. Such a loss is understandable, as any top team would struggle significantly without its star player. Therefore, their unceremonious 2024-25 playoff exit shouldn`t overshadow their impressive mid-season transformation. Prior to acquiring Butler, Golden State held a mediocre 25-26 record with a -0.4 net rating. However, from Butler`s first game until the end of the regular season, they boasted the league`s best defensive rating and the third-best net rating at +9.2 per 100 possessions. Their 23-8 record during this period, which translates to a remarkable 61 wins over a full season, was no coincidence. With Curry fully recovered and Butler committed for a complete season, there`s little to suggest Golden State will perform worse. The team also benefits from exceptional continuity, with twelve of their top thirteen players from the 2024-25 postseason returning for 2025-26. Furthermore, they improved upon their sole significant departure, Kevon Looney, by bringing in Al Horford from the Boston Celtics in free agency.

Curry va Butler: To`liq Mavsum Ta`siri

ESPNning Kevin Pelton prognozlariga ko`ra, «Warriors» butun NBAda 56 g`alaba bilan ikkinchi o`rinni egallashi kutilmoqda. Bu prognoz ularni G`arb elitalari qatoriga qo`yadi va pley-in turniri jamoalaridan ancha yuqoriga joylashtiradi. Nima uchun bu optimistik prognoz bilan «Warriors»ning chempionlik oynasi yopilgan degan keng tarqalgan fikr o`rtasida bunday katta farq bor? Javob oddiy: Jimmi Butler yarim mavsum davomida jamoada bo`lganida, «Warriors» shubhasiz ligadagi eng yaxshi jamoalardan biri bo`ldi va ular mavsum oralig`ida o`z faoliyatini yanada yaxshiladi. Mantiqan, bu ularni kelgusi mavsum uchun qonuniy da`vogarga aylantiradi. O`tgan yili «Golden State» birinchi bosqichda ikkinchi o`rinni egallagan «Rockets»ni mag`lub etib, «Timberwolves»ga qarshi birinchi o`yinda g`alaba qozongan, ammo seriyaning boshida Stephen Curry son mushaklari jarohati olganidan keyin kuchdan qolgan edi. Bunday mag`lubiyat tushunarli, chunki har qanday top jamoa o`zining yulduz o`yinchisisiz sezilarli qiyinchiliklarga duch keladi. Shu sababli, ularning 2024-25 yilgi pley-offdan sharafsiz chiqib ketishi mavsumdagi ajoyib o`zgarishlarini yashirmasligi kerak. Butler kelishidan oldin, «Golden State» 25-26 rekordga ega bo`lib, net reytingi -0.4 edi. Biroq, Butlerning debyutidan muntazam mavsum oxirigacha, ular himoya reytingi bo`yicha ligada birinchi, net reytingi bo`yinchia esa har 100 hujumda +9.2 bilan uchinchi o`rinni egalladi. Bu davrdagi 23-8 rekordi, bu butun mavsumda ajoyib 61 g`alabaga teng, tasodif emas edi. Curry to`liq sog`aygan va Butler butun mavsum davomida jamoada bo`lgan holda, «Golden State»ning bu mavsumda yomonroq o`ynashiga hech qanday sabab yo`q. Jamoa ajoyib barqarorlikdan foyda ko`radi, chunki 2024-25 yilgi pley-offda eng ko`p o`ynagan o`n uch o`yinchidan o`n ikkitasi 2025-26 yilgi mavsumda qaytadi. Bundan tashqari, ular yagona muhim yo`qotishlari, Kevon Looney o`rniga «Boston Celtics»dan erkin agent sifatida Al Horfordni olib, tarkibni kuchaytirdilar.

The Crucial Role of Al Horford

Al Horford`s addition to Golden State is pivotal, offering Stephen Curry a unique big man he hasn`t had before. Since Curry`s breakthrough 2012-13 season, the leading Warriors centers in total three-pointers made were Dario Saric with 74 in 2023-24 and rookie Quinten Post with 73 last season. In stark contrast, Horford has consistently hit over 100 three-pointers in each of the past three seasons, boasting a 40.9% success rate from beyond the arc—the highest among all centers with at least 100 makes, slightly edging out Karl-Anthony Towns` 40.8%. This exceptional floor-spacing ability will perfectly complement reluctant shooters like Butler and Green. Beyond his shooting, Horford surpasses Saric and Post as both a defender and a playmaker, making him a superior all-around fit. A frontcourt featuring Butler, Green, and Horford, collectively holding 15 All-Defensive Team selections, possesses immense defensive potential. A formidable defense is as crucial to the Warriors` winning philosophy as Curry`s long-range shots. In their 2021-22 championship season, the Warriors ranked second in defensive rating while only 16th offensively. Last year, post-Butler`s arrival, Golden State led the league in defensive rating, even without Horford and despite opponents` unusually high three-point shooting percentages against them.

Al Horfordning Hal Qiluvchi Roli

Al Horfordning «Golden State»ga qo`shilishi muhim ahamiyatga ega, chunki Stiven Curry avval 39 yoshli NBA chempioni kabi katta o`yinchi bilan o`ynamagan. Curryning 2012-13 yilgi muvaffaqiyatli mavsumidan beri «Warriors» markaziy o`yinchilari orasida umumiy uch ochkolik to`plar soni bo`yicha yetakchilar 2023-24 yilda zaxira markazi sifatida 74 ta uch ochkolik to`p urgan Dario Sarich va o`tgan mavsumda yangi o`yinchi sifatida 73 ta to`p urgan Kvintin Post edi. Aksincha, Horford so`nggi uch mavsumning har birida yuzdan ortiq uch ochkolik to`p urgan va uning bu davrdagi 40.9% uch ochkolik to`p urish samaradorligi kamida 100 ta to`p urgan barcha markaziy o`yinchilar orasida eng yaxshisi bo`lib, Karl-Anthony Townsning 40.8% ko`rsatkichidan biroz ustun turadi. Maydonni kengaytirish qobiliyati Butler va Greenga muhim muvozanatni ta`minlaydi, chunki ular har ikkalasi ham to`p otishga moyil bo`lmagan o`yinchilar. Horford shuningdek, Sarich va Postdan ancha ustun himoyachi va ijodkor bo`lib, uni «Warriors» tarkibi uchun har tomonlama yaxshi moslashtiradi. Butler, Green va Horforddan iborat oldingi chiziq katta himoya salohiyatiga ega, ular birgalikda o`z faoliyatida 15 marta «All-Defensive Team»ga kirganlar. Kuchli himoya, axir, Curryning uzoqdan otilgan uch ochkolik to`plari kabi «Warriors»ning g`alaba qozonish falsafasining markaziy qismidir. Ularning 2021-22 yilgi chempionlik mavsumida «Warriors» himoya reytingi bo`yicha ikkinchi o`rinni egallagan, hujumda esa atigi 16-o`rinda bo`lgan. O`tgan yili, Butler kelganidan keyin, «Golden State» ligada himoya reytingi bo`yicha yetakchilik qildi – hatto Horfordsiz va raqiblarining uch ochkolik to`plarni g`ayritabiiy yuqori foizda urishiga qaramay.

A Deeper, More Versatile Roster

Golden State is also expected to improve their offensive output this season. In 2024-25, their offense thrived when Curry was playing but significantly declined during his rests. Lineups without either Curry or Butler ranked in the bottom 5th percentile for offensive rating. However, Butler effectively stabilized these groups, ensuring the Warriors remained competitive whenever at least one star was on the court. The main concerns for this strategy are player age and availability. Curry has averaged 15 games missed per season since 2019-20, and Butler hasn`t played enough games to qualify for NBA awards since 2018-19. Consequently, the Warriors might face difficulties when Curry is off the court and Butler is also absent. Jonathan Kuminga, currently still with the Warriors after an extended restricted free agency, could be crucial as the primary scoring option during minutes without Curry or Butler. Last season, he showcased this potential by averaging 24.3 points on 55% shooting in their final four playoff games. Alternatively, Kuminga could facilitate a midseason trade to bolster the team. As the only Warrior with a salary between $12 million and $25 million this season, he represents the ideal trade chip for acquiring another significant talent before the deadline. Despite this, as the season approaches, it`s not immediately clear which specific position the Warriors most need to strengthen. They currently possess an impressive blend of star talent and roster depth. An advanced statistic called xRAPM, which combines play-by-play and on/off data, identifies five Warriors – Curry, Butler, Green, Horford, and Brandin Podziemski – among the top 10% most impactful players per possession in the league. Only the Thunder, Rockets, and Cavaliers can boast more than three such players. Supporting this core quintet, the Warriors have a diverse group of perimeter role players, including Hield, Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, and De`Anthony Melton, each bringing different strengths. Bench bigs like Post and Trayce Jackson-Davis further add versatility. Kevin Pelton`s projections also highlight their depth, stating that the Warriors, like the Thunder, have 11 players rated above league average.

Chuqurroq va Ko`p Qirrali Tarkib

Bu mavsumda «Golden State»ning hujumkor o`yinlari ham yaxshilanishi kutilmoqda. 2024-25 yillarda Curry maydonda bo`lganida hujum samarali ishlagan, ammo u dam olganida keskin pasaygan; Curry yoki Butler bo`lmagan tarkiblar hujum reytingi bo`yicha pastki 5 foizlikda joylashgan edi. Biroq, Butler bu guruhlarni samarali barqarorlashtirgan va «Warriors» hech bo`lmaganda bitta yulduz maydonda bo`lganida raqobatbardoshligini saqlab qolgan. Bu strategiya uchun asosiy xavotirlar o`yinchilarning yoshi va maydonda bo`la olishidir. Curry 2019-20 yillarning deyarli barchasini o`tkazib yuborganidan beri har mavsumda o`rtacha 15 o`yinni o`tkazib yuborgan, Butler esa 2018-19 yildan beri NBA mukofotlariga loyiq bo`lish uchun yetarli o`yin o`tkazmagan. Natijada, Curry zaxira o`rindig`iga o`tirganida va Butler ham yo`q bo`lgan o`yinlarda «Warriors» yana qiyinchiliklarga duch kelishi mumkin. Hozircha «Warriors» bilan shartnomasini uzaytirish bo`yicha uzoq davom etgan cheklovli erkin agentlikdan so`ng qolayotgan Jonatan Kuminga, Curry yoki Butler bo`lmagan daqiqalarda asosiy ochko to`plovchi variant sifatida muhim rol o`ynashi mumkin. O`tgan mavsumda u pley-offning so`nggi to`rtta o`yinida 55% aniqlik bilan o`rtacha 24.3 ochko to`plagan holda bu salohiyatni namoyish etdi. Shu bilan bir qatorda, Kuminga mavsum o`rtasida transferni amalga oshirish orqali jamoani kuchaytirishga yordam berishi mumkin. Bu mavsumda maoshi 12 million dollar va 25 million dollar orasida bo`lgan yagona «Warriors» o`yinchisi bo`lgani sababli, u transfer muddati tugashidan oldin jamoaga yana bir muhim iste`dodni jalb qilish uchun zarur bo`lgan maoshni ta`minlaydi. Shunga qaramay, mavsum boshlanishiga yaqinlashar ekan, «Warriors» qaysi pozitsiyani eng ko`p kuchaytirishi kerakligi aniq emas. Ular hozirda yulduz iste`dodi va tarkib chuqurligining ajoyib uyg`unligiga ega. xRAPM deb nomlangan ilg`or statistik ma`lumotlarga ko`ra, ular o`yin-o`yin va maydonda/maydonda bo`lmagan ma`lumotlarni birlashtiradi, beshta turli «Warriors» o`yinchisi – Curry, Butler, Green, Horford va Brandin Podziemski – har bir hujumda ligadagi eng ta`sirchan o`yinchilarning eng yaxshi 10 foizi qatoriga kiradi. Faqat «Thunder», «Rockets» va «Cleveland Cavaliers» jamoalarida uchdan ortiq bunday o`yinchi bor. Va bu beshlik ortida, «Warriors» perimetrda turli kuchlarga ega bo`lgan zaxira o`yinchilar guruhiga ega, ular orasida Hield, Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody va De`Anthony Melton bor, shuningdek, zaxiradan turli xil katta o`yinchilar sifatida Post va Trayce Jackson-Davis ham mavjud. Kevin Peltonning prognozlarida ular tarkibining chuqurligi ham ta`kidlanadi, u «Warriors», «Thunder» kabi, ligada o`rtacha ko`rsatkichdan yuqori baholangan 11 ta o`yinchiga ega ekanligini aytadi.

Navigating the Western Conference Minefield

Ultimately, the most significant challenge for the Warriors might not stem from their own roster, but rather from the intensely competitive landscape of the Western Conference. The West`s top teams are considerably stronger now than in 2022, when Golden State advanced to the Finals by overcoming injury-plagued Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, and Dallas Mavericks squads. Despite this increased competition, every team in the conference outside of Oklahoma City and Denver faces substantial issues. For instance, Fred VanVleet`s ACL injury is expected to significantly reduce Houston`s potential. Minnesota relies heavily on aging veterans like 38-year-old Mike Conley and 33-year-old Rudy Gobert, alongside unproven rookies such as Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr., to support their star Anthony Edwards. The Lakers are hampered by a shallow rotation, a potentially weak defense, and an ongoing injury to LeBron James. The Clippers, similar to the Warriors, contend with concerns about player age, compounded by the potential repercussions of the Kawhi Leonard/Aspiration investigation. Even the dominant Thunder, seemingly without major flaws, could find it difficult to eliminate Golden State in a playoff series. The Warriors have consistently challenged the current Thunder roster. Over the past two seasons, Golden State holds a 3-4 record against Oklahoma City; two of those losses went to overtime, and Curry was absent for the other two. Importantly, Butler was not part of the roster for any of these matchups. While the Warriors would undoubtedly be underdogs against the Thunder, they possess a legitimate, albeit challenging, path to contend. At this stage of their competitive cycle, all they can truly ask for is an opportunity. With James Wiseman having departed and Jonathan Kuminga potentially on his way out, the Warriors` `two timelines` development strategy has been abandoned. The sole focus now is on the present, aiming to maximize Stephen Curry`s remaining chances to expand his legacy and trophy collection.

G`arbiy Konferensiyaning Og`ir Yo`lidan O`tish

Nihoyat, «Warriors» uchun eng katta qiyinchilik ularning o`z tarkibidan emas, balki G`arbiy konferensiyaning o`ta raqobatbardosh muhitidan kelib chiqishi mumkin. G`arbning eng yaxshi jamoalari hozirda 2022 yildagidan ancha kuchliroq, o`shanda «Golden State» jarohatlar bilan azoblangan «Nuggets», «Memphis Grizzlies» va «Dallas Mavericks» jamoalarini mag`lub etib Finalga chiqqan edi. Ushbu kuchaygan raqobatga qaramay, «Oklahoma City» va «Denver»dan tashqari konferensiyadagi har bir jamoa katta muammolarga duch kelmoqda. Masalan, Fred VanVleetning oldingi xochsimon bog`lami (ACL) jarohati «Houston»ning salohiyatini sezilarli darajada pasaytirishi kutilmoqda. «Minnesota» Anthony Edwardsni qo`llab-quvvatlash uchun yoshi o`tib borayotgan faxriylar (38 yoshli Mike Conley va 33 yoshli Rudy Gobert) hamda tajribasiz yoshlarga (Rob Dillingham va Terrence Shannon Jr.) haddan tashqari bog`liq. «Lakers» ingichka rotatsiyaga va potentsial halokatli himoyaga ega, ular allaqachon LeBron Jamesning jarohati bilan kurashmoqda. «Clippers» esa «Warriors» kabi yosh masalalari bilan, shuningdek, Kawhi Leonard/Aspiration tergovining mumkin bo`lgan oqibatlari bilan yuzlashmoqda. Hatto dominant «Thunder» ham, hatto mayda muammolarga ham ega bo`lmasa-da, potentsial pley-off uchrashuvida «Golden State»ni mag`lub etishda qiyinchiliklarga duch kelishi mumkin. «Warriors» «Thunder»ning hozirgi tarkibini doimiy ravishda sinab ko`rgan. So`nggi ikki mavsumda «Golden State» «Oklahoma City»ga qarshi 3-4 natija qayd etgan; bu mag`lubiyatlarning ikkitasi qo`shimcha vaqtda sodir bo`lgan, qolgan ikkitasida esa Curry o`ynamagan. Muhimi, bu uchrashuvlarning birortasida ham Butler tarkibda yo`q edi. Garchi «Warriors» «Thunder»ga qarshi hech qachon favorit bo`lmasa-da, ular raqobatning iste`dodli maydonidan va o`zlarining yosh bilan bog`liq to`siqlaridan o`tishlari kerak bo`ladi. Ammo bu butunlay noto`g`ri taklif emas va ularning raqobatbardoshlik bosqichida «Warriors» so`rashi mumkin bo`lgan yagona narsa – imkoniyatdir. James Wiseman ketgan va Jonatan Kuminga jamoani yarim yo`lda tark etishi mumkin bo`lgan bir paytda, «Warriors»ning «ikki vaqt chizig`i» rivojlanish strategiyasi bekor qilingan. Hozirda yagona e`tibor bugungi kunga qaratilgan, Stephen Curryning qolgan imkoniyatlarini maksimal darajada oshirib, o`z sovrinlar kolleksiyasini kengaytirishga intilmoqda.