Fantasy Basketball: Eric Karabell’s Player List to Avoid in Drafts

Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies: Due to a combination of injuries and off-court issues, Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies has appeared in only 59 games over the last two seasons, never exceeding 68 games in any single season. Furthermore, his scoring, rebounding, and assisting numbers declined last season compared to 2022-23. While the departure of Desmond Bane might boost his production, a third-round ADP is still too high given his inconsistent availability. Morant is a dynamic, highlight-reel player, but his limited game participation diminishes his fantasy value.

Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans: New Orleans Pelicans power forward Zion Williamson played barely 30 more games than an average person last season. While he boasts exceptional per-minute scoring, fantasy success hinges on consistent playing time, far beyond what role players like Neemias Queta and Adem Bona offered. Even in his 70-game season two years ago, his overall output was underwhelming, nowhere near elite 30 PPG levels. Williamson also offers minimal rebounding and shot-blocking, and his poor free-throw percentage can hurt fantasy teams. Avoid him in the initial five rounds; apply similar caution to LA Clippers small forward Kawhi Leonard, whose fantasy contributions often don`t match his perceived value, even beyond his injury history.

Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid, center for the Philadelphia 76ers, often sees his ADP increase significantly in October, despite recurrent injury concerns. The 76ers typically declare their MVP-caliber star healthy, only for issues to arise. Last season, Embiid played only 19 games due to a persistent left knee injury, and his performance suffered when he was on the court. Even if he`s cleared for opening night, the team will likely manage his workload carefully. While securing Embiid in the sixth round for even 50 games might seem like a steal, the headache and uncertainty are often not worth it. Consider safer, later-round options like centers Myles Turner and Jalen Duren instead.

Kyrie Irving, PG, Dallas Mavericks: Dallas Mavericks point guard Kyrie Irving`s return date is highly uncertain, and it won`t be in the near future. While he could be stashed in an injured reserve slot, avoid drafting him within the first 100 picks in standard redraft leagues. Irving suffered a torn left ACL in March, and even a February All-Star break return would likely involve significant load management for a team with playoff aspirations. He hasn`t played more than 60 games since the 2018-19 season.

Dejounte Murray, PG, New Orleans Pelicans: New Orleans Pelicans point guard Dejounte Murray tore his right Achilles on New Year`s Eve, with initial projections suggesting a return no earlier than January. Even upon his comeback, fantasy managers should temper expectations, as his statistics are unlikely to reach his usual levels. His scoring dipped to 17.5 PPG in his first season with the Pelicans, though his assists and steals remained strong. While stashing injured players can sometimes pay off, the likelihood of losing patience by Christmas makes such an early draft pick risky. Unlike players like Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics), Damian Lillard (Portland Trail Blazers), and Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers) — all of whom tore their Achilles in the playoffs and are expected to miss the entire season, making them easy fades — don`t be misled by players projected to miss just «a few months»; they often miss more.

Paul George, PF, Philadelphia 76ers: Veteran power forward Paul George`s inaugural season with the Philadelphia 76ers was disappointing. Already known for durability concerns, he struggled to integrate into the new offensive system, exacerbated by limited playing time alongside Embiid. George`s passive play led to averages of just 13.9 field goal attempts and 16.2 points per game. His numbers may not significantly improve even if the 76ers stay healthier overall. Recovering from summer knee surgery, his start date is likely delayed, pushing his ADP outside the top 100. While caution is advised, if players like George, Ball, Morant, Williamson, and Embiid fall significantly in the draft due to their injury concerns, they could offer value – fantasy drafts are ultimately about finding value.

Mikal Bridges, SF, New York Knicks: New York Knicks small forward Mikal Bridges is remarkably durable, rarely missing a game – a valuable trait in fantasy. However, his overall fantasy production is often unremarkable. He typically doesn`t contribute significantly in rebounds or assists, and his strong defense rarely translates into high steal or block numbers. While his consistent volume is beneficial, especially in points leagues, a fifth-round ADP is still too high. Teammate Josh Hart, who excels in rebounds and assists, often provides better value.

Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta Hawks power forward Kristaps Porzingis, though currently healthy (to our knowledge), has a history of injuries that could place him in the «injured» category. On this Hawks team, with high-usage point guard Trae Young and developing center Onyeka Okongwu handling much of the rebounding, Porzingis is unlikely to reach his previous levels of 20 points and 7 rebounds per game. While his ADP has fallen outside the top 50, he might still underperform expectations for those who draft him several rounds later.

John Collins, PF, Los Angeles Clippers: While John Collins deserves recognition for his 19.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game with the Utah Jazz last season (albeit in just 40 games), replicating that output with the Clippers will be challenging. His new team features a ball-dominant point guard in James Harden, prolific scorers like Bradley Beal and Kawhi Leonard, and a dominant rebounder in center Ivica Zubac, who led the NBA in total rebounds last season. Collins` statistics are more likely to resemble his final season with the Hawks (13.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG), which would only be acceptable if drafted in the later rounds (Round 10 or beyond).

Jrue Holiday, PG, Portland Trail Blazers: Newly acquired Trail Blazers point guard Jrue Holiday has had an illustrious career, marked by defensive excellence and two NBA championships. However, his fantasy relevance has diminished significantly, even with an ADP typically beyond the tenth round. The Blazers are committed to developing young talent like Scoot Henderson (the 2023 No. 3 pick). Even if Holiday is traded to a contender, his production is unlikely to reach his Milwaukee Bucks-era levels. This situation mirrors our warning about Mavericks shooting guard Klay Thompson last year, who subsequently had his least productive season since his rookie year.

Rookies (Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe): Dallas Mavericks small forward/power forward Cooper Flagg is poised to make an immediate fantasy impact, but he stands as an anomaly among rookies. Most first-year players struggle to provide fantasy-relevant statistics. Last season, San Antonio Spurs point guard Stephon Castle, despite winning Rookie of the Year, saw most of his production post-All-Star break and didn`t rank among the top 100 players. Flagg, however, is a rare talent. Therefore, do not expect Spurs guard Dylan Harper, 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe, or other top draft picks to deliver significant fantasy numbers in their rookie seasons. While Flagg himself is likely to be overdrafted in many leagues (it would be surprising if he immediately replicates his Duke stats of 19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG), he should still be productive enough to warrant consideration.

Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies: Jarohatlar va maydon tashqarisidagi muammolar tufayli Memphis Grizzlies`dan Ja Morant soʻnggi ikki mavsumda atigi 59 ta oʻyinda qatnashdi va biror mavsumda 68 ta oʻyindan oshmadi. Bundan tashqari, uning ochko toʻplash, ribaund va assist koʻrsatkichlari 2022-23 mavsumiga nisbatan oʻtgan mavsumda pasaydi. Desmond Banening ketishi uning samaradorligini oshirishi mumkin boʻlsa-da, uchinchi raunddagi ADP uning nomuvofiq mavjudligini hisobga olgan holda hali ham juda yuqori. Morant dinamik, yorqin oʻyinchi, ammo uning cheklangan oʻyinlarda qatnashishi uning fantasy qiymatini pasaytiradi.

Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans: New Orleans Pelicansning hujumchi Zion Williamson oʻtgan mavsumda oddiy odamdan atigi 30 ta koʻproq oʻyin oʻtkazdi. Har daqiqadagi ajoyib ochko toʻplash koʻrsatkichlariga ega boʻlsa-da, fantasy muvaffaqiyati Neemias Queta va Adem Bona kabi zaxira oʻyinchilar taklif qilganidan ancha koʻproq doimiy oʻyin vaqtiga bogʻliq. Ikki mavsum oldin 70 ta oʻyinda qatnashgan boʻlsa ham, uning umumiy samaradorligi past edi, hatto elit 30 PPG darajasiga ham yaqin emasdi. Williamson shuningdek, minimal ribaund va bloklar taklif qiladi, va uning yomon erkin toʻp otish foizi fantasy jamoalariga zarar yetkazishi mumkin. Uni dastlabki besh raundda chetlab oʻting; LA Clippersning kichik hujumchisi Kawhi Leonardga ham shunga oʻxshash ehtiyotkorlik bilan munosabatda boʻling, uning fantasyga qoʻshgan hissasi koʻpincha jarohat tarixidan tashqari, uning sezilgan qiymatiga mos kelmaydi.

Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers: Philadelphia 76ers markazi Joel Embiid, doimiy jarohat tashvishlariga qaramay, oktyabr oyida uning ADP sezilarli darajada oshadi. 76ers odatda oʻzining MVP darajasidagi yulduzini sogʻlom deb eʼlon qiladi, ammo keyin muammolar paydo boʻladi. Oʻtgan mavsumda Embiid doimiy chap tizza jarohati tufayli atigi 19 ta oʻyin oʻtkazdi va maydonda boʻlganida uning samaradorligi pasaydi. Agar u mavsumning ochilish oʻyiniga tayyor boʻlsa ham, jamoa mavsum davomida uning yuklamasini ehtiyotkorlik bilan boshqarishi mumkin. Embiidni hatto 50 ta oʻyinda oʻynasa ham oltinchi raundda olish ajoyib tuyulishi mumkin, ammo bu bosh ogʻrigʻi va noaniqlik koʻpincha bunga arzimaydi. Buning oʻrniga Myles Turner va Jalen Duren kabi keyingi raunddagi xavfsizroq markazchilarni koʻrib chiqing.

Kyrie Irving, PG, Dallas Mavericks: Dallas Mavericks posboni Kyrie Irvingning qaytish sanasi juda noaniq va yaqin orada boʻlmaydi. Uni jarohatlanganlar roʻyxati joyiga qoʻyish mumkin boʻlsa-da, standart redraft ligalarida uni dastlabki 100 ta tanlov ichida draft qilmang. Irving mart oyida chap tizzasidagi ACL ligamentini yirtib oldi, va hatto fevraldagi All-Star tanaffusigacha qaytgan taqdirda ham, pley-offga intilayotgan jamoa uchun deyarli har bir oʻyinda oʻynamaydi. Irving oxirgi marta 2018-19 mavsumida 60 tadan ortiq oʻyinda maydonga tushgan edi.

Dejounte Murray, PG, New Orleans Pelicans: New Orleans Pelicans posboni Dejounte Murray Yangi yil arafasida oʻng Axilles payini uzib oldi, dastlabki taxminlarga koʻra, u shu mavsumda yanvardan oldin debyut qilmaydi. Hatto qaytganidan keyin ham, fantasy menejerlar umidlarini pasaytirishi kerak, chunki uning statistikasi odatdagi darajaga yetishi dargumon. Pelicansdagi birinchi mavsumida uning ochko toʻplash koʻrsatkichlari 17.5 PPGga tushib ketdi, garchi uning assistlari va toʻp oʻgʻirlashlari kuchli boʻlib qolsa-da. Kutilmalarda ehtiyot boʻling. Jarohatlangan oʻyinchini saqlash vaqti keladi, ammo koʻpchilik fantasy menejerlari Rojdestvogacha sabr-toqatini yoʻqotishadi, shuning uchun draft tanlovi behuda ketadi. Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics), Damian Lillard (Portland Trail Blazers) va Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers) kabi oʻyinchilardan farqli oʻlaroq — ularning barchasi NBA pley-offlarida Axilles paylarini yirtib olishgan va butun mavsumni oʻtkazib yuborishlari kutilmoqda, bu esa ularni osongina chetlab oʻtishga imkon beradi — faqat «bir necha oy»ni oʻtkazib yuborishi kutilayotgan oʻyinchilar tomonidan chalgʻimang; ular koʻpincha undan ham koʻproq vaqtni oʻtkazib yuborishadi.

Paul George, PF, Philadelphia 76ers: Veterana hujumchi Paul Georgening Philadelphia 76ersdagi ilk mavsumi umidsizlik bilan yakunlandi. Chidamlilik muammolari bilan allaqachon tanilganligi sababli, u yangi hujum tizimiga moslashishda qiynaldi, bu Embiid bilan cheklangan oʻyin vaqti bilan yanada kuchaydi. Georgening passiv oʻyini har bir oʻyinga atigi 13.9 ta maydon zarbasini va 16.2 ochko toʻplashni keltirib chiqardi. Hatto 76ers nisbatan sogʻlom boʻlsa ham, uning koʻrsatkichlari sezilarli darajada yaxshilanmasligi mumkin. Yozgi tizza operatsiyasidan tiklanayotganligi sababli, uning boshlanish sanasi kechikishi va ADPini kuchli 100 talikdan tashqariga surib qoʻyishi mumkin. Ehtiyot boʻlish tavsiya etilsa-da, agar George, Ball, Morant, Williamson va Embiid kabi oʻyinchilar jarohat sababli draftda sezilarli darajada pastga tushsa, ular qiymat taklif qilishi mumkin – fantasy draftlari oxir-oqibat qiymat topishdan iborat.

Mikal Bridges, SF, New York Knicks: New York Knicksning kichik hujumchisi Mikal Bridges ajoyib darajada chidamli, oʻyinlarni kamdan-kam oʻtkazib yuboradi – bu fantasyda qimmatli xususiyat. Biroq, uning umumiy fantasy samaradorligi koʻpincha eʼtiborga loyiq emas. U odatda ribaundlar yoki assistlarda sezilarli hissa qoʻshmaydi, va uning kuchli himoyasi kamdan-kam hollarda koʻp toʻp oʻgʻirlash yoki bloklarga aylanadi. Uning doimiy oʻyin hajmi, ayniqsa ochko ligalarida foydali boʻlsa-da, beshinchi raunddagi ADP hali ham juda yuqori. Uning Villanova/Knicksdagi jamoadoshi Josh Hart ribaundlar va assistlarda sezilarli darajada koʻproq hissa qoʻshadi, shuning uchun u yaxshiroq qiymatni taʼminlaydi.

Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta Hawksning hujumchisi Kristaps Porzingis, hozirda sogʻlom boʻlsa-da (biz bilganimizcha), jarohatlar tarixi bor, bu uni «jarohatlanganlar» qatoriga kiritishi mumkin. Bu Hawks jamoasida, yuqori darajada toʻpni ishlatadigan posbon Trae Young va rivojlanayotgan markaziy Onyeka Okongwu ribaundlarning katta qismini boshqarayotgan bir paytda, Porzingis avvalgi 20 ochko va 7 ribaund darajasiga yetishi dargumon. Garchi uning ADP kuchli 50 talikdan tashqariga tushgan boʻlsa-da, u bir necha raund keyinroq uni draft qilgan sarmoyadorlarning umidlarini puchga chiqarishi mumkin.

John Collins, PF, Los Angeles Clippers: John Collins oʻtgan mavsumda Utah Jazz bilan har bir oʻyinda 19.2 ochko va 8.2 ribaund toʻplagani uchun minnatdorlikka loyiq boʻlsa-da (garchi bu atigi 40 ta oʻyin boʻlsa ham), Clippers bilan bu koʻrsatkichlarni takrorlash qiyin boʻladi. Uning yangi jamoasida toʻpni koʻp ishlatadigan posbon James Harden, Bradley Beal va Kawhi Leonard kabi mahoratli toʻp uruvchilar, shuningdek, oʻtgan mavsumda NBA`da umumiy ribaundlar boʻyicha yetakchi boʻlgan markaziy Ivica Zubac bor. Collinsning statistikasi Hawksdagi soʻnggi mavsumidagiga oʻxshash boʻlishi ehtimoli koʻproq (13.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG), bu esa faqat keyingi raundlarda (10-raund yoki undan keyin) draft qilingan taqdirda maqbul boʻladi.

Jrue Holiday, PG, Portland Trail Blazers: Yangi kelgan Trail Blazers posboni Jrue Holiday oʻzining ajoyib karyerasiga ega boʻlib, himoyadagi mukammalligi va ikkita NBA chempionligi bilan ajralib turadi. Biroq, uning fantasyga aloqadorligi sezilarli darajada pasaygan, hatto uning ADP odatda oʻninchi raunddan keyin boʻlsa ham. Blazers Scoot Henderson (2023-yilgi 3-raqamli tanlov) kabi yosh isteʼdodlarni rivojlantirishga intilmoqda. Holiday jamoani oʻzgartirib, chempionlikka intilayotgan jamoaga oʻtgan taqdirda ham, uning koʻrsatkichlari Milwaukee Bucks davridagi darajaga yetishi dargumon. Bu vaziyat oʻtgan yili Mavericksning hujumchisi Klay Thompson haqida bergan ogohlantirishimizga oʻxshaydi, Thompson keyinchalik oʻzining yangi oʻyinchi mavsumidan keyingi eng yomon mavsumini oʻtkazdi.

Yangi oʻyinchilar (Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe): Dallas Mavericksning kichik hujumchisi/hujumchisi Cooper Flagg fantasyda darhol taʼsir koʻrsatishi kutilmoqda, ammo u yangi oʻyinchilar orasida noyob hisoblanadi. Koʻpchilik birinchi yilgi oʻyinchilar oʻzlarining ilk mavsumida fantasyga aloqador statistikani taqdim etishda qiynaladilar. Oʻtgan mavsumda San Antonio Spurs posboni Stephon Castle «Yilning eng yaxshi yangi oʻyinchisi» mukofotini qoʻlga kiritgan boʻlsa-da, uning koʻrsatkichlarining aksariyati All-Star tanaffusidan keyin yuzaga keldi va u «Player Rater»da kuchli 100 talikka kirmadi. Flagg esa noyob isteʼdod. Shuning uchun, Spurs posboni Dylan Harper, 76ers posboni VJ Edgecombe yoki boshqa yuqori draft tanlovlari oʻzlarining yangi oʻyinchi mavsumlarida sezilarli fantasy raqamlarini taqdim etishini kutmang. Flaggning oʻzi koʻpchilik ligalarda haddan tashqari yuqori baholanadi (u darhol Duke`dagi statistikasi — 19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG — bilan mos kelishi hayratlanarli boʻlar edi), ammo u baribir eʼtiborga loyiq boʻlishi kerak.