Expert insights from André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick, and Steve Alexander.

Crafting a victorious fantasy basketball roster begins with an exceptional draft. To achieve a great draft, it`s essential to pinpoint which players to pursue aggressively and which ones to steer clear of.

So, which athletes are set to exceed their Average Draft Position (ADP) this season? Who is primed to elevate their performance to a new echelon? And which players pose the highest risk of underperforming?

Sleepers

Sleeper: A player projected to significantly outperform their average draft position (ADP) in standard fantasy leagues.

Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs

Karabell: Castle demonstrated star potential during the final 25 games of last season, averaging 19.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game, ultimately earning Rookie of the Year honors. This strong finish occurred without PG De`Aaron Fox in the lineup. However, these two talents can certainly thrive together in a dynamic backcourt. Concerns about promising rookie Dylan Harper are likely premature, as he`s not expected to take on a significant role immediately. Castle doesn`t need to become an elite shooter to achieve his top-50 fantasy potential, given his comprehensive contributions. His current positioning outside the top 100 picks in drafts presents minimal risk.

Alex Sarr, C, Washington Wizards

Snellings: As the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft, Sarr boasts the highest ceiling from his class and showed surprising maturity for a rookie. Observing him in Vegas this summer, he displayed the kind of dominance I look for in sophomores — he was simply too good for the Summer League competition. He`s projected to be a consistent double-double threat nightly, offering excellent blocks and developing outside shooting. This gives him an upside comparable to a young Jaren Jackson Jr. when healthy.

Kevin Porter Jr., SG, Milwaukee Bucks

McCormick: Following the Damian Lillard era, the Bucks` guard rotation lacks depth, pushing Porter into a key on-ball playmaking role. The versatile guard flourished in this capacity last season when Lillard was off the court, exhibiting assist numbers akin to a primary point guard while averaging 19.3 points in his four starts for Milwaukee. Bucks coach Doc Rivers is known for relying heavily on his starters, suggesting Porter could see significant minutes and produce strong fantasy numbers as the team`s top playmaker alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Trey Murphy III, SF, New Orleans Pelicans

Alexander: Reports indicate Murphy has fully recovered from his torn labrum and should be ready for the Pelicans` season opener. While Murphy has indeed faced the unfortunate «New Orleans injury bug,» playing only 57 and 53 games in the past two seasons, his current health entering this season is genuinely exciting. His per 36 minutes stats last season were impressive: 21.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 3.1 three-pointers per game. Given Zion Williamson`s consistent health issues, Murphy is poised for a breakout season if he can remain on the court.

Matas Buzelis, SF, Chicago Bulls

Moody: Buzelis enters his second season as the leading candidate for the Bulls` starting power forward spot. The 2024 first-round pick averaged 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game across 31 regular-season starts. He showed consistent improvement throughout the year, finishing strong and impressing in two Summer League appearances. As a 6-foot-10 wing with capabilities in scoring, playmaking, and shot-blocking, Buzelis is one of my top fantasy sleepers.

Breakouts

Breakout: A player anticipated to ascend to or near the top tier of their position for the first time, driven by a substantial increase in production compared to previous seasons.

Brandon Miller, SF, Charlotte Hornets

McCormick: Potentially overlooked by some fantasy managers due to a perceived lack of buzz from last season, Miller was on track for an outstanding sophomore campaign, showing growth in every key statistical category. He was attempting 11.4 three-pointers per 36 minutes while also improving as both a passer and a slasher. Given his immense, league-winning potential, Miller is currently my favorite player to draft in best ball leagues and will likely remain so deep into the redraft season.

Cooper Flagg, SF, Dallas Mavericks

Alexander: Flagg is the player who will help Mavericks fans move past the Luka Doncic era and eventually forgive Nico Harrison for that trade. The only two rookies I`ve ever been truly bullish on are Doncic and Victor Wembanyama. While I`m not quite at that level of enthusiasm for Flagg, he should be set for a colossal rookie season on a team featuring an injury-prone Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, who is expected to miss a significant portion of the season. Averages of 20 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, one steal, one block, and 1.5 three-pointers are well within reach for Flagg`s debut season, and I`ll confidently draft him once the premier names are off the board.

Josh Giddey, SG, Chicago Bulls

Snellings: In my initial draft projections, Giddey ranked as a top-15 player in points leagues. Subsequent adjustments placed him a bit lower, closer to top-40, but he possesses the potential for top-20 if the Bulls utilize him as extensively as I anticipate. Over his final 25 games last season, after becoming a primary option for the Bulls, Giddey averaged 20.2 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game. With a featured role throughout the entire season, he could match or even exceed these impressive numbers.

Jaylen Wells, SG, Memphis Grizzlies

Moody: The 2024 second-round pick secured a starting position after just five games. He averaged 10.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.7 three-pointers in merely 25.9 minutes per game. Desmond Bane`s offseason trade to the Magic creates a significant opportunity for Wells` role to expand. Last season, Bane held a 24.2% usage rate, 14.8 field goal attempts, and 30.2 minutes per game — production that Wells should be able to absorb. He is a strong candidate for a major leap this season.

Kel`el Ware, C, Miami Heat

Karabell: Ware`s overall rookie statistics might appear modest, but he saw very limited playing time during his initial months. This physically imposing center averaged 11 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game over his final 49 contests. His presence shifted C Bam Adebayo to power forward, where Adebayo excelled, averaging over 20 points per game. Ware might not be expected to be a high-volume scorer, but his defensive prowess provides a solid fantasy floor, and minutes will be readily available. Crucially, Ware seems undervalued in early ADP, often falling outside the top 150. It`s surprising that a starting center with double-double potential could be drafted so late.

Busts

Bust: A player expected to be a reliable starter in standard fantasy leagues but who is likely to fall short of those expectations this season.

Paul George, SF, Philadelphia 76ers

Moody: George remains a high-profile name in fantasy drafts, but he carries substantial bust potential heading into 2025. He recently underwent another knee procedure and has participated in fewer than 60 games in five of the last six seasons. At 35, George`s durability is a significant concern, and his scoring dipped to 16.2 points per game last season, his lowest in a decade. Even if George is healthy at the start of training camp, expecting him to play 70-plus games is a risky wager. Coupled with sharing offensive opportunities with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, George`s potential upside simply doesn`t justify his probable draft cost.

Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies

Karabell: Morant undoubtedly delivers nightly highlight plays, but he consistently fails to meet preseason expectations and his high ADP because he simply doesn`t play enough games. What constitutes «enough games»? Morant played in 67 games as a rookie, but his game count has declined since then. He missed nearly all of the 2023-24 season and played in only 50 games last season. Furthermore, Morant`s numbers in 2024-25 saw drops in scoring, rebounds, and assists, while his turnovers increased. He remains a valuable player, and we acknowledge that Bane`s departure should boost his usage, but if he can`t stay on the court, he can`t contribute to your fantasy team.

Ivica Zubac, C, Los Angeles Clippers

Alexander: Zubac nearly achieved All-Star status last season after a career-best year, averaging 16.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks. However, he was playing a demanding 32.8 minutes per game. The Clippers not only acquired PF John Collins in the offseason but also brought in Brook Lopez to provide backup for Zubac when needed. On paper, the Clippers possess considerable firepower, and Lopez has been a long-time starter in the league. While I don`t foresee Lopez fully taking Zubac`s starting job, I also don`t expect him to play fewer than 20 minutes a night. Collins and Lopez are almost guaranteed to reduce Zubac`s minutes, and I believe he will be drafted too highly, as both his playing time and production are highly likely to decrease. Avoid reaching for Zubac expecting last season`s stellar performance.

Nic Claxton, C, Brooklyn Nets

McCormick: While Claxton`s defensive contributions can be valuable at times, his poor free-throw percentage and limited offensive repertoire hinder his overall fantasy appeal. The Nets appear poised to experiment with various lineup configurations this season, not all of which will necessitate a traditional, rim-running center. I would prefer to wait and draft a player like Alex Sarr, embracing his higher upside.

Fred VanVleet, PG, Houston Rockets

Snellings: VanVleet served as the Rockets` primary perimeter offensive engine – the consistent veteran who produced when former No. 1 option Jalen Green was inconsistent. However, the newly acquired Kevin Durant will now be the perimeter anchor, and Alperen Sengun the interior engine, significantly reducing VanVleet`s offensive responsibilities. Additionally, the Rockets` last two top-5 draft picks, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, are both expected to take on larger roles this season, which could further diminish VanVleet`s usage.

Fantaziya Basketboli 2025-26: Asosiy O`yinchilar – «Sleepers», «Breakouts» va «Busts»

André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick va Steve Alexanderning ekspert tahlillari.

G`olib fantaziya basketbol jamoasini shakllantirish ajoyib tanlovdan boshlanadi. Muvaqqiyatli tanlovni amalga oshirish uchun qaysi o`yinchilarni faol ravishda ta`qib qilish va qaysilardan uzoqroq turish kerakligini aniq bilish muhimdir.

Xo`sh, bu mavsumda qaysi sportchilar o`zlarining o`rtacha tanlov pozitsiyasidan (ADP) yuqori natija ko`rsatadi? Kim o`z o`yinini yangi darajaga olib chiqishga tayyor? Va qaysi o`yinchilar past natija ko`rsatish xavfi eng yuqori?

«Sleepers» (Kutilmagan Qahramonlar)

«Sleeper»: Standart fantaziya ligalarida o`rtacha tanlov pozitsiyasidan (ADP) sezilarli darajada yuqori natija ko`rsatishi kutilayotgan o`yinchi.

Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs

Karabell: Castle o`tgan mavsumning so`nggi 25 o`yinida yulduzlik salohiyatini namoyish etdi, o`rtacha 19.3 ochko, 5.2 ribaund va 5.6 assist to`pladi va oxir-oqibat Yilning eng yaxshi yangi o`yinchisi unvonini qo`lga kiritdi. Bu kuchli yakun PG De`Aaron Fox ishtirokisiz sodir bo`ldi. Biroq, bu ikki iqtidorli o`yinchi dinamik himoya chizig`ida birgalikda gullab-yashnashi mumkin. Istiqbolli yangi o`yinchi Dylan Harper haqidagi xavotirlar ehtimoliy muddatidan oldin, chunki u darhol sezilarli rol o`ynashi kutilmaydi. Castle o`zining har tomonlama hissasini hisobga olgan holda, top-50 fantaziya salohiyatiga erishish uchun elit snayperga aylanishi shart emas. Uning hozirgi tanlovda top-100 dan tashqarida joylashishi minimal xavf tug`diradi.

Alex Sarr, C, Washington Wizards

Snellings: 2024 yilgi NBA draftida ikkinchi umumiy tanlov bo`lgan Sarr, o`z sinfidagi eng yuqori salohiyatga ega va yangi o`yinchi sifatida kutilganidan ancha ilg`or edi. Bu yozda Vegasda uni kuzatganimda, u ikkinchi kurs o`yinchilarida izlaydigan dominantlikni namoyish etdi – u Yozgi Ligaga nisbatan shunchaki juda yaxshi edi. U har kecha barqaror ikki karra dubl tahdidiga aylanishi, ajoyib bloklar va tashqaridan zarbalar taklif qilishi kutilmoqda. Bu unga sog`lom bo`lganida yosh Jaren Jackson Jr.ga o`xshash salohiyatni beradi.

Kevin Porter Jr., SG, Milwaukee Bucks

McCormick: Damian Lillard davridan so`ng, Bucksning himoyachi rotatsiyasi chuqurlikdan mahrum bo`lib, Porterni asosiy to`p o`ynash roliga majbur qilmoqda. Ko`p qirrali himoyachi o`tgan mavsumda Lillard maydonda bo`lmaganida bu vazifada muvaffaqiyat qozondi, assistentlik ko`rsatkichlari asosiy poynt-gvardnikiga o`xshash bo`ldi, shuningdek Milwaukee uchun to`rtta startida o`rtacha 19.3 ochko to`pladi. Bucks bosh murabbiyi Doc Rivers o`zining asosiy o`yinchilariga juda ishonishi bilan tanilgan, bu esa Porterning sezilarli daqiqalar olishini va Giannis Antetokounmpo bilan birga jamoaning asosiy pleymeykeri sifatida kuchli fantaziya raqamlarini ishlab chiqarishini anglatadi.

Trey Murphy III, SF, New Orleans Pelicans

Alexander: Xabarlarga ko`ra, Murphy yirtilgan labrum jarohatidan to`liq tiklandi va Pelicansning mavsum ochilish o`yinida maydonga tushishga tayyor bo`lishi kerak. Garchi Murphy so`nggi ikki mavsumda atigi 57 va 53 o`yinda ishtirok etib, «New Orleans jarohat virusi»ga duch kelgan bo`lsa-da, bu mavsumga sog`lom kirishi haqiqatan ham hayajonli. Uning o`tgan mavsumdagi 36 daqiqalik statistikasi juda ta`sirli edi: 21.8 ochko, 5.2 ribaund, 3.7 assist, 1.1 to`p o`g`irlash, 0.8 blok va har bir o`yinda 3.1 uch ochkolik zarba. Zion Williamsonning doimiy sog`liq muammolarini hisobga olsak, Murphy maydonda qolsa, katta muvaffaqiyatga erishishga tayyor.

Matas Buzelis, SF, Chicago Bulls

Moody: Buzelis ikkinchi mavsumiga Bullsning asosiy kuchli forvard pozitsiyasi uchun asosiy nomzod sifatida kiradi. 2024 yilgi birinchi raund tanlovi 31 ta muntazam mavsum startida o`rtacha 13.0 ochko, 4.5 ribaund va 1.1 blok to`pladi. U yil davomida izchil rivojlanishni ko`rsatdi, kuchli yakunladi va ikki Yozgi Liga o`yinida ta`sirchan ko`rindi. 6 fut 10 dyumli, ochko to`plash, pleymeykerlik va bloklash qobiliyatiga ega qanot o`yinchisi sifatida Buzelis mening eng sevimli fantaziya «sleepers»larimdan biridir.

«Breakouts» (Katta Sakrashlar)

«Breakout»: Oldingi mavsumlarga nisbatan ishlab chiqarishda sezilarli o`sish hisobiga o`z pozitsiyasidagi eng yaxshi o`yinchilar qatoriga birinchi marta kirishi yoki yaqinlashishi kutilayotgan o`yinchi.

Brandon Miller, SF, Charlotte Hornets

McCormick: O`tgan mavsumdagi shov-shuvning yo`qligi sababli ba`zi fantaziya menejerlari tomonidan e`tibordan chetda qolgan bo`lishi mumkin bo`lgan Miller, har bir asosiy kategoriyada o`sishni ko`rsatib, ajoyib ikkinchi mavsumga yo`l olmoqda edi. U 36 daqiqa davomida 11.4 ta uch ochkolik zarba berishga harakat qildi, shu bilan birga pas berish va raqibni yorib o`tishda ham yaxshilandi. Uning ulkan, ligani yutishga qodir salohiyatini hisobga olsak, Miller hozirda «best ball» ligalarida va, ehtimol, «redraft» mavsumining chuqur bosqichlarida ham mening eng sevimli tanlovimdir.

Cooper Flagg, SF, Dallas Mavericks

Alexander: Flagg Mavericks muxlislarga Luka Doncic davrini unutishga va oxir-oqibat Nico Harrisonni o`sha savdo uchun kechirishga yordam beradigan o`yinchi bo`ladi. Men haqiqatan ham yuqori baholagan faqat ikkita yangi o`yinchi Doncic va Victor Wembanyama edi. Garchi Flaggga bo`lgan ishtiyoqim ular darajasida bo`lmasa-da, u jarohatga moyil Anthony Davis va mavsumning katta qismini o`tkazib yuborishi kutilayotgan Kyrie Irving kabi o`yinchilardan iborat jamoada ulkan yangi mavsumga tayyor bo`lishi kerak. Flaggning debyut mavsumi uchun o`rtacha 20 ochko, 8.0 ribaund, 4.0 assist, bir to`p o`g`irlash, bir blok va 1.5 uch ochkolik zarba erishib bo`lmaydigan ko`rsatkichlar emas, va men yuqori nomlar tanlanganidan keyin uni ishonch bilan tanlayman.

Josh Giddey, SG, Chicago Bulls

Snellings: Mening dastlabki tanlov prognozlarimda Giddey ball ligalarida top-15 o`yinchi sifatida joylashgan edi. Keyinchalik o`zgartirishlar uni biroz pastroq, top-40 ga yaqinroq joylashtirdi, ammo agar Bulls uni men kutganimdek keng miqyosda foydalansa, u top-20 salohiyatiga ega. O`tgan mavsumning so`nggi 25 o`yinida, Bulls uni asosiy variantga aylantirgandan so`ng, Giddey o`rtacha 20.2 ochko, 9.5 ribaund va 8.1 assist to`pladi. Butun mavsum davomida asosiy rolga ega bo`lgan holda, u bu ta`sirchan raqamlarga erisha oladi yoki hatto undan ham oshib ketishi mumkin.

Jaylen Wells, SG, Memphis Grizzlies

Moody: 2024 yilgi ikkinchi raund tanlovi atigi beshta o`yindan so`ng asosiy tarkibdagi joyni egalladi. U atigi 25.9 daqiqa davomida o`rtacha 10.4 ochko, 3.4 ribaund va 1.7 uch ochkolik zarba to`pladi. Desmond Bane`ning «Magic»ga yozgi tanaffusdagi savdosi Wellsning rolini kengaytirish uchun muhim imkoniyat yaratadi. O`tgan mavsumda Bane 24.2% foydalanish ko`rsatkichiga, 14.8 marta maydondan zarba berishga va 30.2 daqiqa o`ynashga ega edi – Wells bu ishlab chiqarishni o`zlashtira olishi kerak. U bu mavsumda katta sakrash uchun kuchli nomzod.

Kel`el Ware, C, Miami Heat

Karabell: Ware`ning umumiy yangi o`yinchi statistikasi oddiy ko`rinishi mumkin, ammo u dastlabki bir necha oyda juda cheklangan o`yin vaqtini oldi. Bu jismonan kuchli markaz o`zining so`nggi 49 o`yinida o`rtacha 11 ochko, 8.9 ribaund va 1.3 blok to`pladi. Uning ishtiroki C Bam Adebayoni kuchli forvard pozitsiyasiga o`tkazdi, u yerda Adebayo ajoyib o`ynadi va o`rtacha 20 ochkodan oshiq to`pladi. Ware`dan ko`p ochko to`plash talab qilinmasligi mumkin, ammo uning himoyadagi mahorati mustahkam fantaziya asosini ta`minlaydi va daqiqalar bemalol topiladi. Eng muhimi, Ware dastlabki ADP`da kam baholanayotganga o`xshaydi, ko`pincha top-150 dan tashqarida qoladi. Ikki karra dubl salohiyatiga ega asosiy markazning bu qadar kech tanlanishi ajablanarli.

«Busts» (Kutilganidan Past Natija Ko`rsatuvchilar)

«Bust»: Standart fantaziya ligalarida ishonchli starter bo`lishi kutilayotgan, ammo bu mavsumda bu umidlarni oqlay olmaydigan o`yinchi.

Paul George, SF, Philadelphia 76ers

Moody: George fantaziya tanlovlarida hali ham mashhur nom, ammo 2025 yilga kirib, u sezilarli «bust» salohiyatini o`zida mujassam etgan. Yaqinda u yana bir tizza operatsiyasini boshidan kechirdi va so`nggi olti mavsumdan beshtasida 60 dan kam o`yinda ishtirok etgan. 35 yoshida Georgening chidamliligi katta tashvish uyg`otadi va uning ball to`plash ko`rsatkichi o`tgan mavsumda 16.2 ochkogacha tushib ketdi, bu o`n yillikdagi eng pasti. George mashg`ulotlarning boshida sog`lom bo`lsa ham, undan 70 dan ortiq o`yin o`ynashini kutish xavfli garovdir. Joel Embiid va Tyrese Maxey bilan hujum imkoniyatlarini bo`lishishini hisobga olsak, Georgening potentsial salohiyati uning ehtimoliy tanlov narxini oqlamaydi.

Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies

Karabell: Morant shubhasiz har kecha yorqin lahzalar taqdim etadi, ammo u mavsum oldi kutuvlarini va yuqori ADP`sini doimiy ravishda oqlay olmaydi, chunki u shunchaki yetarli o`yin o`ynamaydi. «Yetarli o`yin» deganda nimani tushunish kerak? Morant yangi o`yinchi sifatida 67 o`yin o`ynagan, ammo o`shandan beri uning o`yin soni kamayib bormoqda. U 2023-24 mavsumining deyarli hammasini o`tkazib yubordi va o`tgan mavsumda atigi 50 o`yin o`ynadi. Bundan tashqari, Morantning 2024-25 yillardagi ko`rsatkichlari ochko, ribaund va assistentlikda pasayishni ko`rsatdi, ayni paytda to`p yo`qotishlari oshdi. U qimmatli o`yinchi bo`lib qolmoqda va biz Bane`ning ketishi uning foydalanishini oshirishi mumkinligini tan olamiz, ammo agar u maydonda qola olmasa, sizning fantaziya jamoangizga yordam bera olmaydi.

Ivica Zubac, C, Los Angeles Clippers

Alexander: Zubac o`tgan mavsumda o`z faoliyatidagi eng yaxshi natijalarini ko`rsatib, o`rtacha 16.8 ochko, 12.6 ribaund, 0.7 to`p o`g`irlash va 1.1 blok bilan deyarli All-Star maqomiga erishdi. Biroq, u har bir o`yinda talabchan 32.8 daqiqa o`ynagan. Clippers yozgi tanaffusda PF John Collinsni sotib oldi, shuningdek, zarurat tug`ilganda Zubacni zaxirada almashtirish uchun Brook Lopezni ham jamoaga olib keldi. Nazariy jihatdan, Clippers sezilarli hujum kuchiga ega va Lopez ko`p yillar davomida ligada asosiy o`yinchi bo`lgan. Men Lopez Zubacning asosiy tarkibdagi joyini to`liq egallaydi deb o`ylamayman, lekin u har kecha 20 daqiqadan kam o`ynaydi deb ham kutmayman. Collins va Lopez Zubacning daqiqalarini deyarli kafolatlangan tarzda kamaytiradi deb o`ylayman, va u juda yuqori tanlanadi, chunki uning o`yin vaqti ham, ishlab chiqarish ham pasayishi ehtimoli juda yuqori. O`tgan mavsumdagi ajoyib ko`rsatkichlarni kutib, Zubacni juda yuqori tanlashdan saqlaning.

Nic Claxton, C, Brooklyn Nets

McCormick: Claxtonning himoyadagi hissasi ba`zida qimmatli bo`lsa-da, uning yomon erkin zarba foizi va cheklangan hujum repertuori uning umumiy fantaziya jozibadorligini cheklaydi. Nets bu mavsumda turli xil tarkib konfiguratsiyalarini sinovdan o`tkazishga tayyor ko`rinadi, ularning hammasi ham an`anaviy, ringga yaqin o`ynaydigan markazni talab qilmaydi. Men Alex Sarr kabi o`yinchini kutib, uning yuqori salohiyatini tanlagan bo`lardim.

Fred VanVleet, PG, Houston Rockets

Snellings: VanVleet Rocketsning asosiy perimetr hujum motori edi – avvalgi 1-sonli variant Jalen Green nomuvofiq bo`lganida barqaror natija bergan tajribali o`yinchi. Biroq, yangi kelgan Kevin Durant endi perimetr ankeri bo`ladi va Alperen Sengun ichki motor bo`ladi, bu esa VanVleetning hujum mas`uliyatini sezilarli darajada kamaytiradi. Bundan tashqari, Rocketsning so`nggi ikki top-5 draft tanlovi, Amen Thompson va Reed Sheppard, bu mavsumda kattaroq rollarni o`ynashi kutilmoqda, bu esa VanVleetning foydalanishini yanada kamaytirishi mumkin.